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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."